On September 19, Azerbaijan launched its latest offensive into the Nagorno-Karabakh region, resulting in Azeri military forces in control of the region. This latest offensive has claimed the lives of at least 200 people, with many others being left injured. Nagorno-Karabakh announced that its forces were vastly outnumbered, which resulted in their decision to surrender, and that the republic would likely last for several months.
The origin of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be traced all the way back to the collapse of the Russian Empire, from which the modern state of Azerbaijan was born. The Nagorno-Karabakh region was majority Armenian, and was heavily contested between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Following the Sovietization, Armenia and Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republics (SSRs) were born. The Nagorno-Karabakh oblast was put nominally under the Azerbaijan SSR but given high regional autonomy. The later stages of the Soviet Union saw increased violence in the areas, typified by the events of the Sumgait mob riots (1988) where ethnic Azerbaijanis killed a large number of Armenians and looted Armenian neighborhoods. Following the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, hostilities broke out in earnest once again between the two countries over the region, with the Nagorno-Karabakh region declaring themselves as the breakaway state of Artsakh. The region has faced repeated military action from Azeri forces attempting to retake the area and reestablish their authority in the region. An eventual ceasefire to the First Nagorno-Karabakh War was signed in 1994, brokered by Russia. Between 1994 and 2020, outright military action remained rare, but ethnic tensions and clashes were ever-present. In 2020, we saw a reinvigoration of the conflict via the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, which resulted in Azeri gains against Armenia.
Many observers all over the world have raised concerns that new waves of ethnic cleansing, and, even genocide, may occur due to the disappearance of the Republic of Artsakh. For more than half a year, supplies had been largely cut off from Armenia by The Azerbaijani Government in controversial moves, prompting the concern in many over what might occur next. Many Armenians saw Nagorno-Karabakh as a symbol of hope against a bleak history of oppression, while some also saw parallels to the 1915 genocide of Armenians by Turkey. In the months leading up to the 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a reported 100,400 ethnic Armenians have fled the area. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has expressed major concern over the Azeri blockade. Ever since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has served as a regional arbitrator attempting to stabilize the region and have played a role in negotiations in the last few weeks. The massive displacement of people has led international experts to speculate if the current conditions fit the definitions of a war crime or crime against humanity. The situation is still unfolding, and many are uncertain about their future. Major questions still exist like how the Azerbaijani government will handle the re-integration of the region, the possible intensification of ethnic violence in the region. As a major power in the region, Russia will likely play a large role in determining these.
