Could the electric vehicle revolution be a boon for copper?

Jonas Lobe, Columnist

Copper is a metal that most investors rarely think about. It is hardly a shiny precious metal like silver or gold and its regularity makes it a lot less sexy than so-called rare earth elements like lithium and cobalt that are used to make the batteries in our cellphones, laptops and tablets. However since the end of 2015, the price of copper has risen robustly from $4,240 per ton to $5,840 per ton today– an increase of over 38%.

What is driving the steady rise of this relatively banal metal? A major factor is the rapid growth and investment into electric vehicles (EVs), especially in China. China has announced increasingly ambitious goals for EVs in 2019 and the development of technologies related to these car is one of the pillars of the hyped-up China 2025 campaign.

Furthermore, many countries in Europe, including the UK and France, have stated that they plan to fully phase out gas and diesel vehicles by 2040, a very ambitious goal. Bloomberg reports that EVs will make up about 15 percent of cars worldwide by 2025 and over 60 percent by 2040.

In response, major car companies around the world have been investing heavily. A survey conduct by Reuters shows that car companies plan to spend about $300 billion globally this year. This does not include investments made by municipalities and private companies on chargers and charging station infrastructure as well.

As money is pouring into the sector, investors are looking for ways to make a profit. A popular idea is investing in the metals required to make electric cars.

Certain metals used in the battery cells which store electricity and power have gotten a lot of attention, but the these types investments are volatile. Prices for firms that mine and produce both cobalt and lithium surged over 100 percent in 2017 but have fallen by half as speculative investments have fallen off and ideas around new battery systems that are cheaper and more efficient that are use other metals have been floated.

Copper, on the other hand, is a ubiquitous component within cars due to its durability and conductivity is used in almost every part of cars including the motor, breaks, wiring and connectors of both trucks and cars.

According to the Copper Association, a conventional car uses anywhere from 18 to 48 pounds of copper while a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) uses about 83 pounds, a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) uses about 132 pounds and a battery electric vehicle (BEV) uses 183 pounds. A single battery electric truck or bus uses over 800 pounds of copper.

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the copper mining space have been highly active as of late as companies re-realize the value of their copper mines and production facilities. This week, JXTG Holdings Inc., a Japanese mining conglomerate is exploring the sale of its Caserones copper mine in Chile which could go for as much as $1 billion.

According to the Wall Street Journal, this activity comes right after Canada’s Lundin Mining Corp. struck an $800 million pact to acquire the Chapada copper mine in Brazil from Yamana Gold Inc. earlier this month, after losing out in September to China’s Zijin Mining Group Co. Ltd. for the $1.41 billion acquisition of Nevsun Resources Ltd., a producer of copper and other metals.

The Caserones mine is particularly valuable because the extensive capital expenditures required to set up the mine have already been spent, removing a large risk overhang and expensive barrier of entry for many companies trying to enter the space. The operating costs of running a mine – called OPEX – are substantially lower and more predictable.

A few risks to consider for potential investors include the wide number of assumptions used in calculating the size of the EV market over the next 20 years. Further it will be an uphill battle to build charging infrastructure and create a fully EV environment that will face heavy push-back from the incumbent oil and gas companies.

Betting on the success of an industry so far down the road involves risks. Finally, the market may already be saturated with speculative investors. Too much speculative investing could lead to oversupply or even an asset bubble which could blow up any potential returns.

Some analysts predict copper could still reasonably reach $6,500 a ton by 2023, up another 11 percent from today’s prices. So although copper may not be sexy, it outlook is strong. The growing consideration around climate change and a world-wide effort to cut down on fossil fuel, along with a swath of new electric vehicles planned in the coming years should only help its price in the long-run.